The market shown yesterday is still very optimistic

US Index Technical Outlook:

• The S&P 500 was crushed on the CPI, showing that the market is still very optimistic, the worst is over
• Nasdaq 100 takes the market to the downside
• Dow Jones levels and lines to watch in the coming days

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 Outlook: Yesterday showed the market still very optimistic

The market put in a countertrend rally ahead of yesterday’s CPI numbers, with the market clearly looking for a lower print. The selloff seen yesterday shows how fragile the market is, and hopefully the worst is behind us.

It is my view that the market is in a prolonged bear market, and the price action on such a figure further validates this assumption. With that said, however, we could see a bounce in the near term as the SPX sits on the recently proven slope support.

The line rising above the June lows remained the same recently as last week. If we see the boom developing then it is expected to fail soon. A breakdown below the line and a lower-low below 3886 would have the market on its heels towards the next level of support at 3722, a significant low, a reversal that marked a powerful move to the 200-day . M.A.

Below that the 3636 will come into focus. If the full bear market thesis is correct, given where we stand in this cycle, that low should be crossed at some point in the coming weeks. The thinking is that we may hit another meaningful low this fall.

There will be a lot of work to be done from here to get the market re-running the script to convert to a bullish outlook. For now, sticking with a small bias until the market indicates it may be time to either neutral, or outright bullish.

S&P 500 Daily Chart

S&P 500 Chart by TradingView

It won’t take long to get Nasdaq 100 to June’s lows. It has been leading in the downside and is expected to continue to do so. It is well below the equivalent slope of the S&P, indicating that it is weak overall.

The next level of support is at 11928, followed by the area around 11492, then the June low at 11037. At the top it is going to take a step back above 12752 to start back in a positive direction.

Nasdaq 100 Daily Chart

Nasdaq 100 Chart by TradingView

Dow Jones Already at a new low from the August high and below the trend-line since June. We could see a bounce back soon, but were looking to hit the 30149 level relatively soon, followed by a further move to the June low of 29653. A bullish bias would need to cross 32505 at the top to start a correction.

dow jones daily chart

Dow Jones Chart by TradingView

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— Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

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