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There will be no democratic wave in Texas


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Political journalists from The Washington Post, people at the Center for American Progress, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and others who specialize in liberal head-fake, many believe a big blue wave is about to crash into Texas. ,

do not believe. The GOP may be in trouble in some parts of the country, but all is well in Texas. In 2006 — the last time the Dems had retook the House — Republicans had a 12-point advantage in the Texas primary voting. In 2018, he had gained 20 points.

The best evidence of this is the results of Tuesday’s primary election. On election day it was widely reported that “early turnout” turnout among Democrats was over 100 percent compared to the previous midterm election. Turnout also took place among GOP voters, but only a little over 10 percent.

Smart people, meaning those whose political forecasts carry the most weight (heaven knows why) said it meant Democrats were on track in their mission to turn Texas blue. That means they either don’t know Texas or they need to find a new line of work.

Voting was actually on both sides of the aisle, but as far as Democrats go, most of those voters seem to be people who don’t usually vote in primaries but do vote in general elections. That means there isn’t much to add to the millions or more voters who voted for Robert “Beto” O’Rourke and other Democrats, while the GOP has plenty of room to add the 1.5 million or so voters who Turned out are Republican Governor Greg Abbott, Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz, all other statewide official holders (who are all Republicans) and members of Congress and the state legislature.

Editorial cartoon on Democrats in the Trump era

Areas that are unreported and unmarked are the number of local offices in areas that should be Democrat-friendly, where anyone has held county judge (which is the top administrative position in the jurisdiction), tax. Accessor or any of these key positions. Other local offices from which state officials and members of Congress eventually spring. The lack of a “farm team,” as we used to call it back in the days when I practiced politics rather than writing about it, is fatal not only in Texas but throughout the South and in the Midwest.

The fact, one faker would feel uneasy, is that in 2018 Republicans broke their own voting record, casting the most votes in Texas primary history. Even O’Rourke, about whom you’ll hear more until it’s clear that he can’t win absent either a big cruise misstep or a miracle, the latter being more likely, Less than 62 percent of the vote was received against two challengers who had never heard of anyone and who had spent almost no money. Even Wendy Davis, whom Abbott blew out of the water in the 2014 gubernatorial race despite predictions that she would make it a real contest, won 78 percent in her nomination election.

Still, many people with straight faces will claim that the GOP’s (read Trump) position on immigration and trade will alienate Latino voters who will go for Democrats in large numbers. There is no proof of this and whoever is saying so is blowing smoke. The real threat to Republican incumbents comes from high incomes, our fancy college education voters and our Texas heritage swept away by transplanted Californians living in the suburbs around Houston and Dallas. They like their tax cuts and they like the pro-life constitutional judges that Trump is putting on the courts with the advice and consent of senators like Cruz. They don’t like the president so much because all of his friends at the country club don’t like him very much – even if his name is in the same club.

After the votes were counted on Tuesday, Democracy for America President Jim Dean was upbeat. “We’ve got a long road ahead for November,” he said in a statement, “but the victories we saw last night at Lone Star State, as well as the runoff primary set-up of some of those victories, were strongly driven by momentum. suggest. The construction behind a nationwide blue tsunami.” You’ll be hearing this sort of thing for a while, mainly because it helps the progressive national fundraising team keep points on the board. Dean and other Democrats will not acknowledge how long the road they talked about is and how far from November 2018.



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